I believe that the biologists probably do not have a good handle on the complexities of turkey nest. Looking at the apparent methodology using radio transmitters and relying on the hen being in the same place everyday to say it is nesting does not tell the rest of the story.
When it was apparent that there were so many racoon present on my farm that the turkey could not even hatch eggs in great weather as evidence by 2 years of zero production.
I believe that our discussion of turkey should answer some things that would shed more light upon what is happening in turkey recruitment and which may lead to different results then what is usually suggested.
The measuring tool on whether a hen is nesting or not could and probably does not count nests that are destroyed early in the egg laying process.
A QUESTION WHICH I DO NOT KNOW THE ANSWER TO BUT I DO HAVE MY SUSPICIONS IS WHETHER AFTER A NEST FAILURE A DUMB HEN KEEPS USING THE SAME NEST OR WHETHER THEY WILL CHANGE THERE NEST LOCATION. There was a recent thread in which it was asked whether the horrid rain and flooding we have received may not be good for turkey production.
In one case i can see that the likelihood of turkey getting chewed up in the old farmers hay field is greater in a year like this . Even later haying is not going to save the day. The old farmer usually runs cattle thru out the year in different pastures , most farmers will run the cattle thru there hay ground sometime in the winter which leaves no where for a hen to put a nest if her first nest is successful, it will be where there is some cover. EVEN WHEAT WILL HAVE NO COVER TO NEST IN WHEN THE TURKEY START NESTING.
After the hazelville turkey flock had melted down over 90 percent from the hights i say there the historic data appeared on fur bearers and the answers to the question that fellow ne Missourians starting asking in 1989 got its answer.
Up here way up stream where rivers are little more then branched ditches as they get started we had not had floods for three full seasons , we had not really had a real winter since 2009. ALL OF THAT CHANGED THIS YEAR.
mY THEORY UPON THE RISE OF THE EGG SUCKERS IS THAT THEY HAVE BEEN A CONSTANT BUT CONSTANTLY INCREASING DETERRENT TO TURKEY PRODUCTION HERE WITH THE INCREASINGLY DIRE SITUATION INCREASING FOR 29 YEARS.
One would think that as disease hits the racoon as it has my farm twice since 1991the turkey would have a bit better hatch , but having that bit better hatch will be found to be scientific fact that the weather has to be good when the turkey are nesting in cover not the old farmers pasture. The turkey destroyed in the old farmers hay fields will be second third 4th attempt hatches.
i HAVE KNOWN ALL ALONG THAT TO GO FROM ZERO TURKEY PRODUCTION TO 78 PERCENT NESTING SUCCESS AND A 3.57 H TO P RATIO IS SIGNIFICANT . WAY UP THERE ON THE STANDARD DEVIATION SCALE. It has looked like the scientific methodology implied with the snap shot studies being done are lacking in more ways then unquantified variables. to again have similar results leads us to year three. we had a winter we have had lots of flash floods even thou way up here the water is seldom out more than a few hours.
I have been seeing hens out and about , being that they seemed to be more alone then being together i have has faith that there are chicks out there.i saw a hen with at least 7 or 8 chicks a couple weeks ago . the chicks were tiny the old farmer reported several hens with small chicks when he no tilled a bean field that was not harvested last year and when he sprayed it last week.
I bought a cabelas branded white ir game cam a few weeks ago. On my first card change i was really excited to find over 800 pictures on the card. But then a DUMBEST ONES moment occurred. somewhere between the truck and that cam a bunch of cards disappeared. Yesterday i returned checking a short patch for the 7th and 8th time and pulled another card. This time i got home with the card.
No wonder i an seeing so many hens out and about in the best brooding over i have ever had but was not seeing pouts.I never thought that the turkey production here would not run circles around the state and region where the eggs are still being sucked but it appears te drop from the 3.0 and above is not going to fall very far.The only real question is whether our state will keep from setting a all time historical low.
All together there were three hens with at least 7 chicks . THEY ARE SO SMALL THAT IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO GET A GOOD COUNT ON THEM. They are probably so small that non believers or the non believer from the lonely land of Stupid could again deny the overwhelming evidence that he is .