[Hooks]

I have wondered for a couple years if there is a way to give more credibility to August brood survey cards compared to June.
Reason I ask is that I believe too many folks in June who are filling out cards are not all that familiar with turkey behavior.
Today, I saw a hen in an alfalfa field very close to a road by my house. I am 100% certain she had tiny poults by her behavior, but there was no way they could be seen in the less than knee high alfalfa.
I just wonder how many folks would drive by that and write down 1 hen and 0 poults.

 

[henry]

Thats the way it is supposed to be recorded. Just what is observed. Its an index and not a hard figure.

 

[Hooks]

Well if that is the case, then I have a hard time accepting the reliability of the survey.

 

[henry]

It averages out. Its been very reliable at predicting population fluxuations.

 

[Hawk]

Well if that is the case, then I have a hard time accepting the reliability of the survey.

Many states only do August or July and August. Thats why many states have higher phrs than us but similar production.

 

[sandals]

It averages out. Its been very reliable at predicting population fluxuations.

It only averages out if people keep reporting at least double what they actually see

 

[henry]

It only averages out if people keep reporting at least double what they actually see

If one person reports the hen in the op because the poults werent visible there will likely be other sitings where someone reports a hen with 12 or more poults(ie) because they didnt see a second hen that was there. It averages out close enough that its proven to be a reliable indicator of production .

 

[Gamegetter]

I saw a hen today next to the highway in a field I could barely see her, but her head was down a good portion of time and she was on the move. Good chance she had some poults, but traffic was bad and I couldn't get turned around to further investigate, so I'm not reporting one way or the other.

 

[swampchicken]

I'm reporting every hen I see without poults.

 

[justindh1]

From what I understand, survey or ratio is meant more for understanding trends and not accuracy of survey. If more poults are hatched, then more will be seen and vice versa.

 

[Hawk]

From what I understand, survey or ratio is meant more for understanding trends and not accuracy of survey. If more poults are hatched, then more will be seen and vice versa.

This is true. The same number over different periods of the survey doesnt mean the same thing either. We produced far more birds last year with a .9 phr than we did in 1970-1980 with a 3-4 phr.

 

[henry]

From what I understand, survey or ratio is meant more for understanding trends and not accuracy of survey. If more poults are hatched, then more will be seen and vice versa.

Thats what jason Isabelle said in the recent facebook video. He said it is an index. Its not labeled as an "index" but that is what it is .

 

[Hawk]

Thats what jason Isabelle said in the recent facebook video. He said it is an index. Its not labeled as an "index" but that is what it is .

Its labeled an index

 

[henry]

Its labeled an index View attachment 136349

I guess it is in the reports. The cards just refer to it as a survey.