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Nope. A "local" population is much bigger than a couple square miles. Yes, you may shoot every gobbler on a farm, or on a square mile, but that wont be due to regulations. Regulations, other than very small zones or a draw wont prevent what you suggest. Thats where you become confused.

Turkey home ranges on a yearly basis are huge. Turkeys reshuffle the deck every year. Juveniles are shot at almost a zero rate and have high survival. They then become the adults for the next year. Adults arent carrying over. 2 and 3 year old harvest is mostly compensatory. You just arent going to "not shoot" your way to more males in the population.
If 20% of the Spring kill is comprised of juvenile (jakes) harvest, then... ya what you said is true:) "Juveniles are shot at almost a zero rate and have high survival." I hardly consider 20% jake kill to be "almost zero rate"!!!! Just another Hawk embellishment!
 

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Discussion Starter · #82 ·
step 1) more male turkeys die.
step 2) less male turkeys live
step 3) less male turkeys in the population
step 4) less percentage of male birds in the population
step 6) harvest percentage is high enough that harvest is no longer compensatory.
step 7) population declines

note - this applies to a geographic area smaller than a county or state, but large enough to have significant overlap with the home range of a wild turkey flock.
1. The same amount of adult male turkeys die regardless

2. Harvest doesnt impact how many adukt turkeys carryover.

3. The male turkey population is dependent on production, not harvest.

4. Percentage of male birds in the population hasnt changed

6. (Since you skipped 5) Harvest percentage is nowhere close to the level that would impact yearly survival in either the north or south, or public vs private

7. Male harvest doesnt impact populations


If you are in a situation where you think extra opportunity in the afternoon will cause this drastic impact you are more than free to go fishing after 1 pm.
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Discussion Starter · #83 ·

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Discussion Starter · #84 ·
If 20% of the Spring kill is comprised of juvenile (jakes) harvest, then... ya what you said is true:) "Juveniles are shot at almost a zero rate and have high survival." I hardly consider 20% jake kill to be "almost zero rate"!!!! Just another Hawk embellishment!
Harvest rate of Jakes is between 3 and 18% of the jakes on the landscape.

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1. The same amount of adult male turkeys die regardless

2. Harvest doesnt impact how many adukt turkeys carryover.

3. The male turkey population is dependent on production, not harvest.

4. Percentage of male birds in the population hasnt changed

6. (Since you skipped 5) Harvest percentage is nowhere close to the level that would impact yearly survival in either the north or south, or public vs private

7. Male harvest doesnt impact populations


If you are in a situation where you think extra opportunity in the afternoon will cause this drastic impact you are more than free to go fishing after 1 pm. View attachment 220948 View attachment 220949

male harvest can affect the overall population if harvest gets to the point it is not compensatory on a local scale. that is the scenario. maybe you think it is an unlikely scenario. maybe biologists think it is an unlikely scenario. but it is a scenario as requested, and within the realm of possibility.

and I never said anything about 1pm. it is hard for you to understand, but every conversation doesn't come down to that obsession for me.
 

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Discussion Starter · #86 ·
male harvest can affect the overall population if harvest gets to the point it is not compensatory on a local scale. that is the scenario. maybe you think it is an unlikely scenario. maybe biologists think it is an unlikely scenario. but it is a scenario as requested, and within the realm of possibility.

and I never said anything about 1pm. it is hard for you to understand, but every conversation doesn't come down to that obsession for me.
But even if it does, it wont impact the overall population. Thats because once they have bred they are expendable.

You are making a mountain out of a mole hill.

Yes, if there were a way to take 2 identical groups of turkeys that had 100 birds, kill 10 adult gobblers out of 1 and 7 out of the other and the population of 3+ year old gobblers was 1 greater in the population that had 7 removed then yes, it impacted it. The point is, thats not a real difference in population levels. Its a mountain out of a mole hill scenario.

But again..... these birds are here primarily to provide hunting opportunities for hunters. Thats the #1 reason. So if that same group of 100 birds provided 3 additional hunter harvests with only a net loss of 1 3+ year old bird for next year, then it was 100% worth it.
 

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But even if it does, it wont impact the overall population. Thats because once they have bred they are expendable.

You are making a mountain out of a mole hill.

Yes, if there were a way to take 2 identical groups of turkeys that had 100 birds, kill 10 adult gobblers out of 1 and 7 out of the other and the population of 3+ year old gobblers was 1 greater in the population that had 7 removed then yes, it impacted it. The point is, thats not a real difference in population levels. Its a mountain out of a mole hill scenario.

But again..... these birds are here primarily to provide hunting opportunities for hunters. Thats the #1 reason. So if that same group of 100 birds provided 3 additional hunter harvests with only a net loss of 1 3+ year old bird for next year, then it was 100% worth it.
you have to be able to think macro AND micro. I think you have macro nailed. and you seem to be coming around a little bit to the micro. sometimes the macro is even the sum of the micro.....
 

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Discussion Starter · #88 ·
you have to be able to think macro AND micro. I think you have macro nailed. and you seem to be coming around a little bit to the micro. sometimes the macro is even the sum of the micro.....
The point is, REGARDLESS of micro or macro, you wont have a hunter density and over harvest issue over a large enough area to impact the entire "population" even in a given area, say 10 sq miles, or 6400 acres when you are killing almost exclusively adult birds after breeding has taken place. Is it POSSIBLE to kill every adult male bird on 5-10 sq miles? Yes. Is it POSSIBLE to do it in a week? 2 weeks? 3 weeks? From 1- 1000, 1000 being most likely... its a 2.
 

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Harvest rate of Jakes is between 3 and 18% of the jakes on the landscape.

View attachment 220950
i
But even if it does, it wont impact the overall population. Thats because once they have bred they are expendable.

You are making a mountain out of a mole hill.

Yes, if there were a way to take 2 identical groups of turkeys that had 100 birds, kill 10 adult gobblers out of 1 and 7 out of the other and the population of 3+ year old gobblers was 1 greater in the population that had 7 removed then yes, it impacted it. The point is, thats not a real difference in population levels. Its a mountain out of a mole hill scenario.

But again..... these birds are here primarily to provide hunting opportunities for hunters. Thats the #1 reason. So if that same group of 100 birds provided 3 additional hunter harvests with only a net loss of 1 3+ year old bird for next year, then it was 100% worth it.
and those birds can be killed before 1pm, if the hunter chooses to participate.
 

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Discussion Starter · #90 ·
i

and those birds can be killed before 1pm, if the hunter chooses to participate.
Next year they will be able to be killed after 1 pm also...
 

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The point is, REGARDLESS of micro or macro, you wont have a hunter density and over harvest issue over a large enough area to impact the entire "population" even in a given area, say 10 sq miles, or 6400 acres when you are killing almost exclusively adult birds after breeding has taken place. Is it POSSIBLE to kill every adult male bird on 5-10 sq miles? Yes. Is it POSSIBLE to do it in a week? 2 weeks? 3 weeks? From 1- 1000, 1000 being most likely... its a 2.
glad to see you are coming around
 

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Discussion Starter · #93 ·
glad to see you are coming around
There is no "coming around", its called being realistic. By your thinking we should all play the lottery every week because its POSSIBLE we might win 100 million bucks.
 

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There is no "coming around", its called being realistic. By your thinking we should all play the lottery every week because its POSSIBLE we might win 100 million bucks.
not exactly, but yes. you got it. glad to teach you! now you can talk intelligently about research and use the appropriate words instead of your previous language.
 

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Discussion Starter · #96 ·
not exactly, but yes. you got it. glad to teach you! now you can talk intelligently about research and use the appropriate words instead of your previous language.
My entire point of doing this is to NOT use the appropriate words. The appropriate words for researchers get twisted and perverted by people that dont know what they are reading. When you flip a coin and it comes up heads 40 times in a row its pretty safe to say that both sides of the coin are heads.
 

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Discussion Starter · #97 ·
But but.....
Will a person not be able to kill a turkey during spring turkey season after 1 pm next year??
 

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Will a person not be able to kill a turkey during spring turkey season after 1 pm next year??
Only with permission and at certain times. Those conditions were never mentioned when we first discussed ADH several years ago.

Either way, I have hunted Kansas and Nebraska with Lex Luthor a few times and chasing turkeys in the late afternoon is a lot of fun. If its implemented, I'm going to look forward to it. As I said quite a few times, a couple three years ago, I could have filled a tag at 4pm or so a few times, but couldnt. As long as they dont increase the tags, I'll look forward to it AND kill my birds in the fall when I'm archery hunting. I enjoy that too and wouldnt hesitate again to do it. Passing a gobbler in the fall with archery tackle doesnt necessarily mean he is going to be there the following spring so he is an archery target every time I get a chance.
 

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Discussion Starter · #99 ·
Only with permission and at certain times. Those conditions were never mentioned when we first discussed ADH several years ago.

Either way, I have hunted Kansas and Nebraska with Lex Luthor a few times and chasing turkeys in the late afternoon is a lot of fun. If its implemented, I'm going to look forward to it. As I said quite a few times, a couple three years ago, I could have filled a tag at 4pm or so a few times, but couldnt. As long as they dont increase the tags, I'll look forward to it AND kill my birds in the fall when I'm archery hunting. I enjoy that too and wouldnt hesitate again to do it. Passing a gobbler in the fall with archery tackle doesnt necessarily mean he is going to be there the following spring so he is an archery target every time I get a chance.
But, will a person by able to legally kill a turkey in the afternoons spring 2022?
 

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My entire point of doing this is to NOT use the appropriate words. The appropriate words for researchers get twisted and perverted by people that dont know what they are reading. When you flip a coin and it comes up heads 40 times in a row its pretty safe to say that both sides of the coin are heads.
give people some more credit. there may be folks that are well versed in the english language out there besides you. people don't need anything dumbed down, and talking in absolutes where absolutes do not exist only makes you come off as an arrogant, abrasive lower region and convinces nobody of anything.

but now I am also starting to question whether you have ever seen a coin, and if so, whether you ever flipped it over.
 
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