Missouri Whitetails > Archives > Archives 2011 > 2011 Whitetail General > Deer & Deer Hunting Rut Prediction


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Old 09-19-2010, 05:24 AM   #1
Squeaky
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Default Deer & Deer Hunting Rut Prediction

I was reading through the Oct. editon of Deer & Deer Hunting last night and Charles Alsheimer predicts the peak rut will fall after the rutting moon (second full moon after the autumn equinox). This moon will be on Nov. 21st this year. He states according to their 16 years of research this years rut will be similar to 1997 & 2005 seasons when the rutting moon fell on Nov. 14th. They have never seen the full moon fall this late into Nov. while conducting their research. With that said, he does note it will be a strange year and something they have never seen.

I beleive the full moon does have something to do with the rut, but I am not fully sold on the theory. Alsheimer states there will be two hot spots this year. The first will fall after the Oct. 22 full moon thur first few days of Nov. He claims Nov. 7th thur 14th will be void of buck and doe sightings. Those 7 days has always been prime time for me when hunting Midwest. The action will pick back up prior to the Nov. 21st full moon and be wide open thru first of Dec. I guess we will see how it turns out if we get some cold weather the month of Nov.

I am courious to know for those that keep a journal what does your rut notes read for 1997 & 2005 season?



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Old 09-19-2010, 05:56 AM   #2
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Past research of Missouri deer show the peak of breeding to consistently be right around November 10th. Dating deer fetus seems to be the most logical way to show the peak of the rut to me, so I don't feel the need to add things like the moon or other non-proven influences into the mix.

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Old 09-19-2010, 06:40 AM   #3
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I have seen the affects of moon phases (void of any other weather pressure/front/changes) on wildlife behavior and activity....but have never fully believed nor agreed with Charles Alsheimer's theory about the 'rutting moon.' November always seems to reflect the peaks, so I guess it's easy to claim a specific theory has merit, but regardless of what they write and print, there are bucks that are chasing and breeding does from late in October all the way through mid-December or later, dependent upon the condition/balance and health of the population. I agree that this year may reflect some oddities (bucks sure are aggressive with start of rubbing, scraping, and bulking up this year!), but by and large, mid-November will likely hold the most activity - whether we see it during daylight hours or not is yet to be seen.

As well, if we get right down to the nitty details, and I'm sure various calendars reflect slight differences, but moon phases/times as identified on the NASA website reflect the Autumn Equinox actually taking place on Wednesday, 22 September at 2309 (11:09 PM EST), and the full moon occuring on Thursday, 23 September at 0517 (5:17 AM EST).... which, in accordance with Charles Alsheimer's theory, the "peak" of the rut should then occur around 22 October, because that will actually be the "second full moon following the Autumn Equinox"....or the "Hunter's moon."

Just my ...

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Old 09-19-2010, 01:15 PM   #4
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Well if he is right then that could be both good and bad for me. i have my managed hunt November third through fifth. Then I leave for Illinois on the sixth and hunt through the twelfth. But then gun season and late bow season could be fixed up again.
Im willing to bet the second week of November in pike county Il. Is still gonna be alright.

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Old 09-19-2010, 01:36 PM   #5
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Past research of Missouri deer show the peak of breeding to consistently be right around November 10th. Dating deer fetus seems to be the most logical way to show the peak of the rut to me, so I don't feel the need to add things like the moon or other non-proven influences into the mix.

Parker


This discussion of "non-proven influences" is a very interesting one indeed to some. I'm not sure why you felt the need to snipe it. Just because theories don't have some government rubber stamp on them that was funded by taxpayers money doesn't mean they are any less valid "theories."

Now, I'm deeply interested in all sides of this. You seem to be an authority Parker. Dating these fetus; how does that work? Is there somewhere that we can read about the MDC's research on that? How are the fetus collected? I'm going to make an assumption here that since it is fetus dating it would need to be done in the spring or late winter. Is that true? I'm not being facetious here, are road kill does collected and sampled for this or is it done by sonogram? If it is done by sonogram how accurate (+ or-) is the data in days.

Actually I'll regress. If you could just share the source of the data that reference it would probably answer all of the questions and save a great deal of time typing.

I apologize for somewhere derailing this interesting topic. I really don't want to stifle this discussion but did want some further clarification on the fetus dating that was mentioned.

Thanks in advance.
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Old 09-19-2010, 01:51 PM   #6
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I don't think it has anything to do with being "government funded". There are a plethora of both public and privately funded studies on mammalian reproduction and deer specifically. It is completely based on photoperiod. There has never been an actual study showing any correlation with moon phase.

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Old 09-19-2010, 02:03 PM   #7
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How are the fetus collected? .


Road kills.

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Old 09-19-2010, 02:06 PM   #8
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There has never been an actual study showing any correlation with moon phase.


......my reason for "sniping it" CurlyBill.

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Old 09-19-2010, 02:11 PM   #9
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There has never been an actual study showing any correlation with moon phase.


......my reason for "sniping it" CurlyBill.

Parker


Never? You probably better do a little research.

Road kills you say? How many road kills did the MDC sample? Over how many years? Again, what is the accuracy of this fetus dating?

I asked you to support your statement with data. (Hopefully it would be from the MDC.) You seem content with just answering questions with your opinion. It would be a lot easier if you could just point us in that direction.

And for the record, I believe the rut is predominantly influenced by photoperiod. But any discussion of other natural influences is interesting as well.

Thanks.
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Old 09-19-2010, 02:12 PM   #10
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Quote:
Past research of Missouri deer show the peak of breeding to consistently be right around November 10th. Dating deer fetus seems to be the most logical way to show the peak of the rut to me, so I don't feel the need to add things like the moon or other non-proven influences into the mix.

Parker



The chasing really tails off after the 10th in my area so that sure seems correct. They are starting to lock down with does by that point and it happens the same time every year for the past 5 years on my place. I never miss the 9th as that is my single favorite day for chasing.


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